Prediction Markets for Social Science Replication Project Opening Soon

The Open Science Framework announces the opening of a prediction market (PM) to accompany a new replication project.  Over the period September 2016 to September 2017, 21 experimental studies that were published from 2010-2014 in the journals Science and Nature  will be replicated.  For each study, PM participants will be able to bet on the following proposition: “The effect in the replication is in the same direction as in the original study, and is statistically significant with a p-value smaller than 0.05.”  
There will be two chances to replicate each study.  The first study will select a sample size corresponding to 90% power to detect 75% of the effect size reported in the original study.  If the first replication attempt is unsuccessful, a second study will be conducted with a sample size corresponding to 90% power to detect 50% of the effect size reported in the original study.
To learn further information about the 21 studies being replicated, the protocols being used used to replicate each study, the prediction markets, and other details associated with the replication project, click here.

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