When Trying to Explain p-Values, Maybe Try This?
[From the blog “P-values 101: An attempt at an intuitive but mathematically correct explanation” by Xenia Schmalz, posted at Xenia Schmalz’s blog]
“…what exactly are p-values, what is p-hacking, and what does all of that have to do with the replication crisis? Here, a lot of stats-savvy people shake their heads and say: “Well, it’s complicated.” Or they start explaining the formal definition of the p-value, which, in my experience, to someone who doesn’t already know a lot about statistics, sounds like blowing smoke and nitpicking on wording.”
“… the logic behind it is relatively simple, and I often wonder why people don’t explain p-values (and p-hacking) in a much less complicated way. So here goes my attempt at an intuitive, maths-free, but at the same time mathematically correct explanation.”