The Social Science Prediction Platform Makes Its Debut

[Excerpts taken from the blog “Announcing the launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform!” by Aleksandar Bogdanoski and Katie Hoeberling, posted at the BITSS blogsite]
“Collecting and recording predictions systematically can help us understand how results relate to our prior beliefs, as well as how we can improve their accuracy. They can also reveal how surprising results really are, potentially protecting against publication bias or the mistaken discounting of results as “uninteresting” after the fact. Finally, tracking prediction accuracy over time makes it possible to identify super-forecasters—individuals who make consistently accurate predictions—who can help prioritize research questions, as well as design strategies and policy options in the absence of rigorous evidence.”
“Recognizing the potential of a more systematic approach to forecasting, BITSS has been working with Stefano DellaVigna and Eva Vivalt to build the first platform of its kind that will allow social scientists to systematically collect predictions about the results of research. Today we are excited to announce the official launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform!”
“The Social Science Prediction Platform, or SSPP, allows researchers to standardize how they source and record predictions, similar to how study registries have systematized hypothesis and design pre-registration. Perhaps most importantly, the SSPP streamlines the development and distribution of forecast collection surveys.”
“To encourage predictions, we will offer the first 200 graduate students $25 for their first 10 predictions, re-evaluating as more projects and predictions are added to the SSPP.”
To read more, click here.

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