Confidence intervals get top billing as the alternative to significance. But beware: confidence intervals rely on the same math as significance and share the same shortcominings. Confidence intervals don’t tell where the true effect lies even probabilistically. What they do…

Read More[* EiR = Econometrics in Replications, a feature of TRN that highlights useful econometrics procedures for re-analysing existing research. The material for this blog is primarily drawn from the recent working paper “Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing” by Andrew…

Read MoreWhat’s the true effect size? That’s my bottom line question when doing a study or reading a paper. I don’t expect an exact answer, of course. What I want is a probability distribution telling where the true effect size probably…

Read MoreReplication markets are prediction markets run in conjunction with systematic replication projects. We conducted such markets for the Replication Project: Psychology (RPP), Experimental Economics Replication Project (EERP), Social Science Replication Project (SSRP) and the Many Labs 2 Project (ML2). The…

Read MoreFor several years now scientists—in at least some disciplines—have been concerned about low rates of replicability. As scientists in those fields, we worry about the development of cumulative knowledge, and about wasted research effort. An additional challenge is to consider…

Read More[* EiR = Econometrics in Replications, a feature of TRN that highlights useful econometrics procedures for re-analysing existing research. The material for this blog is drawn from a recent working paper, “On the measurement of importance” by Olivier Sterck.] NOTE:…

Read More[* EIR = Econometrics in Replications, a feature of TRN that highlights useful econometrics procedures for re-analysing existing research. The material for this blog is motivated by a recent blog at TRN, “The problem isn’t just the p-value, it’s also…

Read MoreBackground: Nat Goodman is generally pessimistic about the benefits of pre-registration. Bob Reed is generally optimistic about pre-registration. What follows is a back-and-forth dialogue about what each likes and dislikes about pre-registration. [GOODMAN, Opening Statement] We need to remember that…

Read MoreIn Frequentist statistical inference, the p-value is used as a measure of how incompatible the data are with the null hypothesis. When the null hypothesis is fixed at a point, the test statistic reports a distance from the sample statistic…

Read More[* EiR = Econometrics in Replications, a feature of TRN that highlights useful econometrics procedures for re-analysing existing research. The material for this blog is drawn from the recent working paper “Two-way fixed effects estimators with heterogeneous treatment effects” by…

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