GOODMAN: What’s the True Effect Size? It Depends What You Think

What’s the true effect size? That’s my bottom line question when doing a study or reading a paper. I don’t expect an exact answer, of course. What I want is a probability distribution telling where the true effect size probably…

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DON’T: Aim for significance. DO: Aim for precision

[From the recent working paper, “The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability” by Vasishth, Mertzen, Jäger, and Gelman posted at PsyArXiv Preprints] “…when power is low, using significance to decide whether to publish a result leads to a proliferation of exaggerated…

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