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M Is For Pizza

[From the blog ““Tweeking”: The big problem is not where you think it is” by Andrew Gelman, posted at Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science] “In her recent article about pizzagate, Stephanie Lee included this hilarious email from Brian Wansink, the…

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VASISHTH: The Statistical Significance Filter Leads To Overoptimistic Expectations of Replicability

[This blog draws on the article “The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability”, authored by Shravan Vasishth, Daniela Mertzen, Lena A. Jäger, and Andrew Gelman, published in the Journal of Memory and Language, 103, 151-175, 2018. An open…

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Significant Effects From Low-Powered Studies Will Be Overestimates

[From the article, “The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability” by Shravan Vasishth, Daniela Mertzen, Lena Jäger, and Andrew Gelman, published in the Journal of Memory and Language] Highlights: “When low-powered studies show significant effects, these will…

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COVILLE & VIVALT: Should We Trust Evidence On Development Programs?

[From the working paper, “How Often Should We Believe Positive Results? Assessing the Credibility of Research Findings in Development Economics” by Aidan Coville and Eva Vivalt] Over $140 billion is spent on donor assistance to developing countries annually to promote…

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DON’T: Aim for significance. DO: Aim for precision

[From the recent working paper, “The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability” by Vasishth, Mertzen, Jäger, and Gelman posted at PsyArXiv Preprints] “…when power is low, using significance to decide whether to publish a result leads to a proliferation of exaggerated…

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