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There’s Gold in Them Thar Predictions!

[Excerpts taken from the article “Predict science to improve science” by Stefano DellaVigna, Devin Pope, and Eva Vivalt, published in Science] “Many fields of research, such as economics, psychology, political science, and medicine, have seen growing interest in new research…

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Predicting Reproducibility. No PhD Required.

[Excerpts taken from the article “Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate” by Suzanne Hoogeveen, Alexandra Sarafoglou, and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, posted at PsyArXiv Preprints] “…we assess the extent to which a finding’s replication success relates to its intuitive plausibility….

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IN THE NEWS: Psychology Today (June 28, 2019)

[From the article “Second-Guessing Predictions: When to trust scientific predictions—and when to ignore them” by Alexander Danvers] “One of the key reforms of the Credibility Revolution in psychology research is the use of preregistration: Scientists write down what they predict will happen…

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Predicting Reproducibility

[From the working paper “Predicting the Replicability of Social Science Lab Experiments” by Altmejd et al., posted at BITSS Preprints] “We have 131 direct replications in our dataset. Each can be judged categorically by whether it succeeded or failed, by a…

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An Interesting Thread on Pre-registration

The Psychonomic Society has been hosting an interesting blog series on pre-registration. Below are the five blogs with ridiculously brief, and probably misleading, summaries: Stephen Lindsay (“Arguments for Preregistering Psychology Research”) SUMMARY: Proper interpretation of the results from hypothesis testing…

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Postdiction, Prediction, and Preregistration

[From the article, “The preregistration revolution” by Brian Nosek, Charles Ebersole, Alexander DeHaven, and David Mellor, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)] “Sometimes researchers use existing observations of nature to generate ideas about how the world…

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Novelty Versus Prediction

[From the article, “Point of View: How should novelty be valued in science?” by Barak A. Cohen, published in the journal eLife] “Scientists are under increasing pressure to do “novel” research. Here I explore whether there are risks to overemphasizing…

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