The Replication Network
Furthering the Practice of Replication in Economics
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GOODMAN: Ladies and Gentlemen, I Introduce to You, “Plausibility Limits”
Confidence intervals get top billing as the alternative to significance. But beware: confidence intervals rely on the same math as significance and share the same shortcominings. Confidence intervals don’t tell where the true effect lies even probabilistically. What they do…
Read MoreCould Bayes Have Saved Us From the Replication Crisis?
[Excerpts are taken from the article “The Flawed Reasoning Behind the Replication Crisis” by Aubrey Clayton, published at nautil.us] “Suppose an otherwise healthy woman in her forties notices a suspicious lump in her breast and goes in for a mammogram….
Read MoreHIRSCHAUER et al.: Why replication is a nonsense exercise if we stick to dichotomous significance thinking and neglect the p-value’s sample-to-sample variability
[This blog is based on the paper “Pitfalls of significance testing and p-value variability: An econometrics perspective” by Norbert Hirschauer, Sven Grüner, Oliver Mußhoff, and Claudia Becker, Statistics Surveys 12(2018): 136-172.] Replication studies are often regarded as the means to…
Read MoreREED: Why Lowering Alpha to 0.005 is Unlikely to Help
[This blog is based on the paper, “A Primer on the ‘Reproducibility Crisis’ and Ways to Fix It” by the author] A standard research scenario is the following: A researcher is interested in knowing whether there is a relationship between…
Read MoreA Roundtable Podcast on the Merits of Lowering the Threshold for Statistical Significance to 0.005
This past week, the International Methods Colloquium hosted a conference call on a recent proposal to reduce the threshold of statistical significance to 0.005. Participants included Daniel Benjamin, Daniel Lakens, Blake McShane, Jennifer Tackett, E.J. Wagenmakers, and Justin Esarey, all…
Read MoreIs Fixing the Replication Crisis As Simple as Lowering the p-Value?
[From the article “A statistical fix for the replication crisis in science” by Valen E. Johnson at https://theconversation.com/au.] “In a trial of a new drug to cure cancer, 44 percent of 50 patients achieved remission after treatment. Without the drug, only…
Read MoreIN THE NEWS: Vox (July 31, 2017)
[From the article “What a nerdy debate about p-values shows about science — and how to fix it” by Brian Resnick at Vox.com] “There’s a huge debate going on in social science right now. The question is simple, and strikes…
Read MoreIf At First You Don’t Succeed, Change Alpha
In a recent working paper, posted on PsyArXiv Preprints, Daniel Benjamin, James Berger, Magnus Johanneson, Brian Nosek, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, and 67 other authors(!) argue for a stricter standard of statistical significance for studies claiming new discoveries. In their words: “…we…
Read MoreIf the American Statistical Association Warns About p-Values, and Nobody Hears It, Does It Make a Sound?
[From the article, “The ASA’s p-value statement, one year on”, which appeared in the online journal Significance, a publication of the American Statistical Association] “A little over a year ago now, in March 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) took…
Read MoreGELMAN: Some Natural Solutions to the p-Value Communication Problem—And Why They Won’t Work
[NOTE: This is a repost of a blog that Andrew Gelman wrote for the blogsite Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science]. Blake McShane and David Gal recently wrote two articles (“Blinding us to the obvious? The effect of statistical…
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