Confidence intervals get top billing as the alternative to significance. But beware: confidence intervals rely on the same math as significance and share the same shortcominings. Confidence intervals don’t tell where the true effect lies even probabilistically. What they do…

Read More[Excerpts are taken from the article “The Flawed Reasoning Behind the Replication Crisis” by Aubrey Clayton, published at nautil.us] “Suppose an otherwise healthy woman in her forties notices a suspicious lump in her breast and goes in for a mammogram….

Read More[This blog is based on the paper “Pitfalls of significance testing and p-value variability: An econometrics perspective” by Norbert Hirschauer, Sven Grüner, Oliver Mußhoff, and Claudia Becker, Statistics Surveys 12(2018): 136-172.] Replication studies are often regarded as the means to…

Read More[This blog is based on the paper, “A Primer on the ‘Reproducibility Crisis’ and Ways to Fix It” by the author] A standard research scenario is the following: A researcher is interested in knowing whether there is a relationship between…

Read MoreThis past week, the International Methods Colloquium hosted a conference call on a recent proposal to reduce the threshold of statistical significance to 0.005. Participants included Daniel Benjamin, Daniel Lakens, Blake McShane, Jennifer Tackett, E.J. Wagenmakers, and Justin Esarey, all…

Read More[From the article “A statistical fix for the replication crisis in science” by Valen E. Johnson at https://theconversation.com/au.] “In a trial of a new drug to cure cancer, 44 percent of 50 patients achieved remission after treatment. Without the drug, only…

Read More[From the article “What a nerdy debate about p-values shows about science — and how to fix it” by Brian Resnick at Vox.com] “There’s a huge debate going on in social science right now. The question is simple, and strikes…

Read MoreIn a recent working paper, posted on PsyArXiv Preprints, Daniel Benjamin, James Berger, Magnus Johanneson, Brian Nosek, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, and 67 other authors(!) argue for a stricter standard of statistical significance for studies claiming new discoveries. In their words: “…we…

Read More[From the article, “The ASA’s p-value statement, one year on”, which appeared in the online journal Significance, a publication of the American Statistical Association] “A little over a year ago now, in March 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) took…

Read More[NOTE: This is a repost of a blog that Andrew Gelman wrote for the blogsite Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science]. Blake McShane and David Gal recently wrote two articles (“Blinding us to the obvious? The effect of statistical…

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